Mini-workshop: Five tools and tips for relevant green finance programs that don’t lead to green gridlock

We’ve said before that green finance programs that are more meaningful to customers are actually safer investments.  Here are five tools for increasing your program’s relevance to customers.

Problem →Most green finance programs drive green gridlock

No one wakes up planning to create ineffective incentives, yet it happens. Despite the mega-billions of taxpayer dollars sunk into incentives, rebates and other tools designed to stimulate green building and energy efficiency, most green finance programs aren’t getting the kind of traction needed to stimulate private investment and bring about real energy security and sustainability.

Green finance failure is evident in the thousands of redundant, fragmented monetary incentives littering the market, even as building owners complain about insufficient green funding options.  You see it every time an owner retrofits only enough to qualify for a couple of incentives and ignores other energy-saving opportunities.  He lacks the organizational bandwith to access more programs scattered throughout the market.

It’s also apparent in the choking bureaucracy investors experience in trying to access grants and loan guarantees.

Missed signals → fragmented, uncoordinated policies and incentives → green gridlock → frustration

Even more insidious are the ways in which distorted signals about funding lead to even more fragmented, ineffective incentives, adding to the confusion. Click on the graphic to enlarge it and see how that happens.

So an already clogged, murky vat of regulations, policies and confusion continues to calcify, blocking green capital flows to the very initiatives needing funding - gridlock.

The point here is not that “incentives are bad.” It’s that there needs to be more thinking about the customers these programs serve and the kind of job they’re supposed to accomplish.

This requires you to adopt a different mindset about designing and delivering green financial services for your customers.

1→ Reality check: Traditional real estate financial services is an old Buick

Commercial real estate financial services, in general, are like a gas-guzzling old Buick, and putting together commercial real estate transactions is an expensive and time-consuming endeavor.

Over a property’s lifetime, gigabytes of redundant data will be duplicated each time there’s a transaction, generating large amounts of wasted time and expense — gas-guzzling. When a property deal “breaks down,” there are no generic spare parts that you can immediately buy to fix things. Every single repair is a painfully expensive custom job.

Still, we see most green finance programs simply cloning the same gas-guzzling models that have been around for the past few decades. It’s a boring product that’s way past its prime. No wonder investors are unimpressed.

Ask yourself: when’s the last time you were excited about buying a very complex product that forced you to spend tons of money just to acquire it, with absolutely no assurance of whether your true problem would be solved once you used it?

Tip: During your program’s design, make sure you’re not simply replicating the typical commercial real estate financial product. It’s a tired, expensive commodity.

2→ Watch your customer’s movie to solve their real problem

Just as you need to understand the setting of a movie in order to understand a character’s story, you have to get a clear view of the market context that your customer operates within in order to put together a green finance offering that is most meaningful to them. What is their end goal? They’re probably not pursuing sustainability as an end in itself. Rather, sustainability is usually a valuable tool for navigating the tough bigger picture changes happening in their world, including:

• Economic instability
• Social values
• Global markets with greater local influence
• Increased customer expectations about services and products generally
• Building standards and technology improvements

While traditional financial services products are not designed to help property owners navigate these kinds of changes, any property owner who is taking on sustainability by using your green finance program will usually be grappling with these issues.

The key is to understand the particular big picture issues affecting your customers and prioritize their impact. Last month, we talked about our Real Estate Innovation Advisory® services and how they help elicit these kinds of deep insights from customers, increasing your program’s relevance to their business.

Tip: Find out your customers’ true end goals. Build your program around supplying the key resources that help them meet those objectives.

3→ Get into their world with process visualization

The successful green finance program has to beat, not just meet, traditional financial service offerings. To do so, you must know how your green finance offering fits within the customer’s world.

A quick way to immediately improve your green finance program is to look at the range of typical activities that take place during your user’s transactions.  We use Mindjet Mindmanager 8.0 ($349 retail) to sketch mind-maps of customer activities. The example below represents the core components of a property owner’s world.

Put your client’s activities into a process map:

When we work with clients, we catalog their activities and lay them out into a process map that includes the client’s service offering within the customer’s activities.

There are many different kinds of process maps. Below is a simple mock-up of a timeline process map that we  created with Smartdraw. Click on the graphic to see the enlarged view.

This immediately helps everybody to visualize and define the issues that the green finance product addresses, using the same language. We go over the details of these processes and their impacts in our workshops, or you can find out more by contacting us directly.

Tip: Collaborate with customers to learn the typical activities that form their world. The resources below can help you to map your your green finance offering to your customer’s key processes.

Quick reads about process mapping:

• http://www.ehow.com/how_5070753_make-process-map.html
• http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Business_process_modeling

3 process-mapping software options:

• Flowbreeze; $39-$59: http://www.breezetree.com/buy.php
• Smartdraw; $197: http://www.smartdraw.com
• Visio 2007 Standard; $399: http://office.microsoft.com/en-us/visio/fx100487861033.aspx

4 → Three design questions for better green finance programs

Tip: To study your new process map, ask yourself the kinds of questions designers do when they create products and services. Here are three starters that you should answer:

• Does your program enhance or hinder any of these activities or events within real estate finance?
• How many ways does your green finance program touch these events?
• Which activities touch whom? When? How?

5 → The bottom line: Start with a model of good green finance

If you’re starting from scratch, of course you could just work from a better model to begin with.

We use the following model to think through the key elements of successful green finance programs, and to work with clients on pinpointing opportunities and problems. It can help you to see the kinds of problems your program will run into if you copy traditional financial services or leave out some other key component.

Summary

Green gridlock is a needless waste of money and turns the positive intention of greening buildings and saving energy into frustrating experiences and unsuccessful programs.

Many green finance initiatives would become more relevant to property investors and other customers that local governments and utilities try to influence if they a) stopped copying an already flawed finance model and b) took the world of the user, the property owner in this case, under consideration.

Use a model of successful green finance programs and a process map to visualize how your programs fit in the customer’s activities. This will make you more successful because programs that appeal to customers are definitely more successful, and therefore less risky.

What do you think?

Do you have any positive or negative stories of dealing with green finance programs that you would like to share? Let us know. We’d love to address these kinds of issues in future posts.

Want to read more Mini-Workshops?

• #1: GAPS! in practice with 7-Eleven Corporation

Mini-Workshop: GAPS! in practice with 7-Eleven Corporation

Could the shift to sustainability shrink your investment footprint right under your nose?

Here’s a cautionary case study from a real life business, plus a tool to help with early detection of fatal shifts in your pipeline.

The shift to sustainability is driving many jurisdictions to rethink land use on a major scale. That can make structuring an investment program covering several markets quite complex. While land use changes happen all the time, they usually address site specific issues. Investors are very rarely confronted with the possibility of regional land use changes by multiple jurisdictions at once, due to a mega-trend like sustainability.

The sweeping nature of these changes, and the negative consequences to your program if you can’t stay in front of them, are two reasons why you need to employ better tools during program underwriting to detect broader shifts within your investment case; those that might be beyond the information analyzed in typical real estate market analysis studies.

7-Eleven moves to the suburbs

The case of 7-Eleven, covered in the May Harvard Business Review, highlights that problem in a former era - when the shift to suburbs went undetected by the real estate intensive convenience store operator.

Briefly, 7-Eleven had followed an investment strategy of locating stores on roads that connected residential areas with commercial business districts. As suburbs became more popular, many cities removed those roads or they were simply less traveled by suburban-focused consumers, forcing 7-Eleven to locate in shopping centers, where other retailers, such as Target, started mimicking its late business hours and drawing away shopper traffic.

7-Eleven’s U.S. stores’ productivity decreased over the subsequent years as the company gradually lost access to many of its preferred sites and was forced into tougher competition in strip malls and neighborhood shopping centers. The article’s author notes that 7-Eleven’s business in Japan did very well, however, since those stores remained accessible within walkable neighborhoods.  The entire 7-Eleven corporation was eventually bought by one of its very successful Japanese franchisees.

The GAPS! Map

If you’ve attended the recent Competitive Edge Workshops in San Francisco or were at the National Community Development Lending School in New Orleans, you learned how the GAPS! Map tools can help you to develop your business case for the potential value-add that a green or energy efficiency strategy can bring to your investment program.

The GAPS! framework helps practitioners structure the sustainability-driven assessment that is critical for real estate underwriting because sustainability exerts dynamic influences on nearly every facet of a project. The graphic here presents an overview of the tool.

The “P” in GAPS! stands for ‘PIN’ down the causes.  The GAPS framework looks at the sustainability challenge as a complex business “problem”, with root causes that need to be discovered and “solved” via mitigation within the green investment strategy.

Pinning down the causes refers to investigating factors within and external to the project as well as the capabilities of the team that will implement the green strategies. A full description of the available tools is beyond the scope of today’s article, but the case of 7-Eleven highlights the usefulness of one aspect of the assessment. The outcomes are qualitative and quantitative factors that will positively and negatively affect the success of the project.

To evaluate the factors external to the project, you have to investigate the ways that sustainability might exert influence on the social, regulatory, political and of course, environmental forces operating around the project or in the market area where invest.

Typical real estate analysis focuses on real estate specific market factors, but ignores broader regulatory or political action in adjacent markets. It is always assumed that this information is only relevant when it is priced into the real estate, but that is often not the case. If a negative trend has progressed to the point where it can be priced into real estate within your target markets, then it may be too late for you to avoid the damage. You’ll have to either accept that price, rework your investment plan to include countermeasures or leave that market.

With Pinning down the causes, you would have to ask yourself about possible sustainability interactions at a broader level and determine how that might harm or help your green building project, markets, or doing business as usual (conventional investment) if that’s your focus.

The 7-Eleven case highlights the fact that 7-Eleven never connected the dots between the mega-trend of people moving to the suburbs and how that might lead them into direct combat with category killers in suburban strip malls and neighborhood shopping centers.

If the 7-Eleven management team had applied Pinning down the causes within their investment strategy, they might have been able to turn a challenge to their business model, such as consumers moving away to the suburbs, into a bigger opportunity in urban areas:

• Instead of simply following consumers out to the suburbs one market at a time, and getting into a long destructive war with big box category killers, they could have stepped back and noted where the broader trend of suburb life was most prominent and made the decision to capture business in areas that would remain permanently “urban,” where the category killers cannot obtain sites due to their larger store format.
• It took a very long time for many retailers to understand how population density in urban areas is a big plus for retailers. 7-Eleven could have seen these urban shoppers as being a prime customer segment that had been largely overlooked by the category killers (for the first few years anyway).

Both of these ideas are strategic in nature. If a company remains too “close to the ground” in its market analysis and underwriting, it will not see the bigger trends that will impact the long-term success of its investment program.

Using Pinning down the causes forces the investors to ask the bigger, tougher questions in addition to the traditional real estate analytics, to make sure that the project is in sync with larger influences or the investor has at least had an early warning of problems on the horizon that she should make sure to protect her strategy against or possibly turn into a brand new opportunity.

These and many more aspects of using the GAPS tools and frameworks for investment programs and project underwriting are covered during our workshops on green finance. Make sure you are signed up for Pacesetter, our newsletter, so that you’ll get announcements of upcoming classes.

Heard at ULI Boston: Four Forces Shaping Green CRE

There was fresh energy among folks recently at ULI’s 2010 Spring Council Forum in Boston — market opportunities are slowly coming back, but it would be a mistake for your firm to simply repeat all your old moves from the last cycle.

I heard four comments that represent the mood and actions of investors on green real estate now:

Here’s a synopsis of the forces I see those comments representing:

“The other shoe’s dropped, but no one heard it.”

Your plan → Get going on your green portfolio strategies, you’re already behind.

Professionals finally acknowledged that a) rumors of 30%-40% loss of value in commercial real estate are, for the most part, overstated and b) there is currently too much capital in the market chasing too few deals. The latter point has been creating the paradox of deals trading at aggressive cap rates amid a recession.

In the opening session, Equity Office Chairman Sam Zell explained the paradox. When real estate markets tumbled, investors had expected banks to dump lots of deeply discounted properties into the markets, which investors would snap up at rock bottom prices.

Wrong assumption. Instead, banks have focused on working out troubled loans and strategically offloading REO assets one-at-a-time, and as a last resort. That has given the market time to gradually readjust pricing, preventing fire sales.

Reality: on-going one-off REO sales cushioned the velocity and depth of property value loss. The practice has also frustrated distressed players, forcing them to compete for REO deals against high net worth individuals and other sources with more patient capital, willing to pay more. This way has helped the banks to achieve better than predicted pricing on their sold assets and the market again saw no drastic fall in commercial real estate pricing.

In response to the question of why so many investors still talk about doing distressed deals, in the face of this very different reality, one panelist replied “the other shoe has already dropped, but no one heard it”.

Lots of investors have been delaying their investments in green initiatives, n waiting for the market to return to health. The good news is that the market is now not as bad as everyone thought. That’s also the bad news — all the players with dough have already gotten started, so you need to keep up.

“Every day, 1MM square feet of real estate is being LEED-certified.”

Your plan → The shift to green is happening much faster than you might think. You need to speed up your firm’s own shift to keep up.

Doug Gatlin, of the US Green Building Council spoke at our Responsible Property Investing Council Meeting, about the current stats on LEED. Here’s one: LEED certifications are running at 1,000,000 sf/day, even during an economic downturn. One council colleague, calculating a corresponding value of several hundred million dollars per day, said this fact would definitely influence his market conversations in favor of green building.

There’s still quite a way to go before we can say that market transformation from LEED has really happened. One main premise behind Architecture 2030 goals is that the US either renovates or builds new a net 10 billion square feet of real estate each year. The 365 million square feet annualized velocity currently being LEED-certified represents 3.65% of the estimated 10B in annual square footage built or renovated in the US — so there’s much progress to be made.

Theory: For green building to influence leasing and investment activity in a market, the “tipping point”, “competitive mix” and “OS” factors have to all be balancing and reinforcing each other in healthy levels. A sufficient concentration of LEED-certified square footage in a sector can be enough to influence investment activity in that sector towards green buildings (tipping point). Note that “sufficient” needn’t be that much in absolute numbers.

That, plus LEED maintaining its relevance and dominance as a green building rating standard (competitive mix) and regulatory support on federal, state and local levels (operating system or “OS”) are the keys to further increasing green building volume. The lack of competitive mix and OS in a market or for a real estate asset class will result in no tipping point being achieved in the area being studied.

The tipping point and OS factors are already a particular force on investment real estate in some gateway metros. For example in San Francisco, brokers have been publishing their own reports showing higher occupancies in LEED-certified buildings. There are already whole classes of global investors who publicly refuse to buy inefficient buildings. So this force is already at work, even with a small proportion of US real estate earning LEED certification to date.

“Operators need the track record to execute on both traditional real estate and sustainability strategies.”

This was a fund manager’s answer to my question about what made her choose to invest with a certain real estate operator, who had brought her a deal with an extensive energy retrofit including adding renewable energy in the business plan.

With capital markets slowly thawing and the velocity of green building certifications growing, it’s time to ask yourself if you’re company will attract capital with a mandate for sustainable real estate. Fund managers are now speaking out about needing to work with partners who can execute on a sustainability plan.

Additionally, you’ll need to assist the equity partner with understanding the value-add from green strategies being pursued, that will come from your local expertise.  The good news is that right now the market is wide open. Most of the US investment real estate firms who have achieved any progress on greening buildings have done so with a few buildings and many are still just focusing on low hanging fruit.

With the projected high increases in energy and water costs, nimble regional operators have a great chance at building a great track record on greening buildings that can get them hired over larger competitors. Plus, its a big market, anyway, with lots of room for more players. Remember what I said above, about 10B sf real estate being built and renovated in the US each year plus all the money out there chasing too few deals?

“We’re serious about being green, but we’re skipping commissioning on all our buildings.”

Your plan → Ignore free lunches. Compete via consistently delivering the best building performance possible.

This was said by an owner’s rep of an institution presenting their multi-billion dollar portfolio of institutional assets. He added:

“We are making our space LEED certifiable. We’re doing many things according to LEED for existing buildings, like green cleaning and updating the systems in our buildings, but we’re saving a couple hundred thousand dollars by skipping commissioning.”

“Pennywise and pound foolish” - even tired clichés are still true. If you attended our recent Competitive Edge workshop, Financial Considerations for Energy Efficiency Retrofits, you learned that Lawrence Berkeley National Labs (LBNL) research shows that on median costs of just $0.30/sf, commissioning alone achieved energy savings of 16%, with a 1.1 year payback and 91% ROI.

This means that our investor friend’s portfolio could probably deliver many more dollars in performance, which will literally go to waste via a) the properties remaining exposed to more energy price risk (current price plus escalations) than is warranted, b) not achieving the level of upfront energy savings that might have been possible, c) being in for longer-term, higher capital expenditures on their major systems since their performance was never audited to a commissioning standard.

Why is this unfortunate mindset a force on green building investing?  Actually — it’s pervasive to the point of being an archetype. You’ll find a similar mindset in a certain percentage of companies in every industry and at every point in the economic cycle. As the market matures, the economic downside of their inaction will become more apparent

Those of us who know better have to consistently incorporate building performance data into underwriting and valuation, and adjust prices accordingly. When a certain percentage of investors find themselves taking discounts at sale and losing enough tenants, then they’ll change their minds, improve their O&M - and even save themselves a few more bucks the process.

How Green Multifamily Helps Bank CRA Ratings

(that’s “New Orleans” for  non-Southerners).

I am conducting workshops on Underwriting Green Multifamily Development this week at the 2010 National Community Development Lending School (”NCDLS”), hosted by the San Francisco Federal Reserve Bank.

NCDLS takes place within the National Interagency Community Reinvestment Conference, a big national event for community development professionals, Community Reinvestment Act (CRA) officers, lenders, investors, non-profits and intermediaries.

This is the first time that the topic of underwriting green multifamily developments is part of the NCDLS curriculum. We’ll share more tips from the course for you in Tuesday’s Pacesetter (subscribed, yet?)

A main point we are stressing in workshops is that green multifamily investments fulfill a far larger set of objectives than just better quality housing (which, of course, is a great start). We’ll be educating colleagues on how sustainably-designed apartments help regulated financial institutions to go beyond simply fulfilling CRA requirements. Done right, green apartments can materially improve bank CRA examination outcomes, which satisfies the institution’s broader business objectives.

But first, a short background: The Community Reinvestment Act of 1977 was established to ensure that regulated financial institutions would have an obligation to help meet the credit needs of local communities in which they were chartered. Briefly, financial institutions demonstrate compliance with these laws by providing “qualified community development loans, investments and services.”

The actual performance requirements needed to comply with the CRA vary by institution size and charter, however, it’s enough to know here that regulators use CRA examinations to verify an institution’s compliance with these laws. Those examination results are considered whenever a financial institution applies to open a branch, merge with another institution or become a financial holding company, which are the key moves bank need to make in order to grow and survive.

The CRA examination can result in four possible ratings: “outstanding,” “satisfactory,” “needs to improve” and “substantial non-compliance.” In work and conversations with CRA officers and other professionals, we learned that many banks typically receive “satisfactory” ratings, but it is very hard to improve an examination rating from “satisfactory” to “outstanding.” If you take a look at the Cliff Notes version of CRA requirements here, especially those for large banks (assets > $1billion), receiving an “outstanding” across examination categories is not a matter of simply being “very good” at a few things, the institution has to be “excellent” at many requirements, which can be very challenging, particularly during a tough economy.

One of the toughest requirements to fulfill-let alone demonstrate excellence at-is in the “Product Innovation” category, where the large bank has to “make EXTENSIVE USE of  innovative and/or flexible lending practices in serving [assessment area] credit needs.” And this is where green multifamily investments help greatly.

» SF Federal Reserve Bank’s CRA page
» CRA page at Cornell Law School’s Legal Information Institute

What I Learned at the Competitive Edge Workshop #1

“Teaching is half learning.”

That’s a Japanese proverb, originally from the Chinese Book of Documents.  After teaching the first Competitive Edge workshop last week, we definitely believe that’s true — teaching involves a great deal of learning.

In addition to a personally amazing experience with a fantastic group of high-caliber professionals, we found ourselves reflecting deeply on how much we learned from them.

If you’ve been following previous posts on this blog or getting Pacesetter, Investment Analysis of Green Buildings, sponsored by the US Green Building Council - Northern California Chapter and law firm Hanson Bridgett was held last week, we taught to a nearly sold out room.  On top of that, the course was granted CEU-status by USGBC national, a first for the Northern California Chapter — and for green finance anywhere, to the best of our knowledge.

Here is what we learned from listening to and working with the workshop attendees:

#1: Green finance is important to a much larger group of professionals than you might think.

While we deeply believe that green finance can change the world, we had still oriented much of this course’s material to real estate finance and investment professionals. And, we had a full house of folks from some of investment real estate’s household names, which was flattering.  In addition, however, there were also professionals from the building technology,  construction, corporate real estate, affordable housing and legal sectors. In our conversations, we asked attendees about why they attended the course. The answer we received repeatedly was that professionals were finding it critical to understand the perspective of the property owners that they worked with and they believed that updating their knowledge of financing sustainable properties would be a good way to do that.

Real estate professionals in the room were leading change within their firms or they saw the workshop as a good way to help themselves transition within real estate by upping their knowledge and skill of financing green  real estate.

#2: Attendees most liked learning a simple, cohesive underwriting approach, how to apply LEED to finance decisionmaking, metrics and taking away a rich set of resources

We had definitely focused on creating actionable content, and when we reviewed the feedback, the following  topics were voted as being most significant time and time again:

• the GAPS approach simplified underwriting: We had really focused on reducing the complexity associated with underwriting and received strong, positive feedback on this. The participants gave high marks to our own system for green real estate underwriting, which we use to help decisionmakers quickly to define, evaluate and communicate the value-add of green real estate. It was interesting that folks from many non-finance sectors found this approach quite useful, too, in their structuring of their own work with property owners. (Don’t know about GAPS, yet? You should check it out at the next Competitive Edge, Financial Considerations of Energy Efficiency Retrofits, on 7 April; sign up here.)

• Learning how to connect LEED credits with the project operating cash flow: This particular need, a core requirement of our work here, got high marks as well. Most of the feedback was along the lines of participants feeling much more comfortable in conversations at work and with clients, now that they could point to very concrete areas within the LEED-NC system, which were prioritized according to cash flow impact.
  

• More metrics, please!: Green Journey readers know of our papers and posts about metrics for responsible property investing. This topic came at the end of the day, when people are typically a little tired. However, the participant feedback revealed that the topic of metrics was considered very important, telling us that professionals assign a value to incorporating both double and triple bottom line metrics within their practice.

• In-depth resources for self-study: Getting a packet of distilled, vetted sources of the latest green finance research plus tools and tips for further learning and takeaway was voted as very valuable by the attendees. While we taught course materials from  powerpoint slides and handouts, we had originally thought it would be helpful if people received an extra resource book compiling the research, tools and tips on real estate underwriting and sustainable finance that we’ve come to rely on here. So we prepared an 87-page resource book, to support the underwriting of new green construction, which expanded upon the information being taught in the course. We really focused on the green building, finance data and information that we most like to geek-out on. We were pleasantly surprised at how many attendees stated that this information was very valuable. Just this evening, I received a note from a participant saying, “I wanted to thank you for your great insight and the wealth of information that you shared”.

It was really gratifying to be able to share our knowledge and passion with a sharp group of professionals. Their feedback about the topics and resources that were most valuable to them opened our eyes also . This will definitely help us in the upcoming Competitive Edge events.

P.S. → The next Competitive Edge workshop, Financial Considerations for Existing Building Retrofits, takes place on 7 April 2010. We are excited about the fact that the City of San Francisco and PG&E will also be taking part with great information that will help properties to better finance existing building retrofits. Sign up and join us in an exciting day! Seating is limited and several of Workshop #1 attendees have indicated that they’ll be attending again, so register sooner than later. On top of that, early bird pricing runs through 24 March 2010.

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