What will change everything in 2011 and beyond?

A few 2010 events either changed or reinforced perceptions enough to influence sustainable finance in 2011 and beyond:

1. Positive Green Building Momentum & Performance

Confirming year-end data reinforces the value of building environmental certification.

• LEED-certified buildings have reached a footprint of 1 billion square feet worldwide, with another six billion square feet of registered projects in the pipeline.

• In the The Economics of Green Building, researchers demonstrate that green building economic performance was not affected by recent market volatility, that the economic premiums in the green properties studies remain substantial and energy efficiency does contribute to higher rents and values.

2. Quantified Credit Risk for Environmental Irresponsibility

• If your lender shrugs when you tell them that building environmental certification benefits them, too, send them a copy of Corporate Environmental Management & Credit Risk. Rob Bauer and Daniel Hann’s prize-winning study that demonstrated how US companies engaged in environmentally risky activities paid a premium for their bond debt of up to 64 bps per annum.

3. Innovative Structure Straddles Real Estate & Energy

• We covered Hunt Power’s use of the REIT structure to offer up to $2.1 billion in energy infrastructure finance via joint ventures, purchase and leasing. There are several energy and technology sectors that urgently need better ways to access capital than the market can provide. Look out for more novel, hybrid investment structures that bring commercial solutions to financing sustainability across buildings and other domains.

4. Regulatory Ramp Up Continues

• Carbon cap and trade has arrived in California, joining building energy disclosure requirements and Cal Green. Under new regulations adopted 20 December, greenhouse gas emissions of large industrial plants will be capped from 2012 forward. Given California’s legal requirement to reduce emissions by 15% from today’s levels by 2020, we will continue to see heavy action both within California, as well as California’s experience influencing how these issues are handled in other states and even within the Federal Government.

5. PACE: New Tools Equal New Perceptions

• We dedicated substantial coverage last year to tax-lien financing for energy efficiency. Professionals from diverse sectors joined forces to cheer on property-assessed clean energy’s brave fight…and boo the regulators as they killed most residential programs. New tools equal new perceptions. PACE’s major success has been how it helped build awareness and shape positive perceptions. Now practitioners realize that such structures are possible and urgently needed. That’s kicked off a lot more interest in getting green finance right from now on.  Policy makers are working on various versions of PACE 2.0 or other PACE-like enabling legislation. It’s hard to tell what progress they’ll make, but PACE’s potential helped focus commercial real estate and government on the market need for such structures in a way not seen before.

So, what kind of market do you think you’ll sell into?

With so much momentum already underway, what are the prospects for your building portfolio?  We think successful investors in the coming years will be good at continuously re-imagining and reinventing their businesses, often at highly local levels.

Which of these events carry the most weight for green real estate?

What’s missing from the green finance conversation that you think needs attention?

Photo credit: Muse by Oimax. If you are a fan of urban photography, check out Oimax’s 6,000+ photostream of stunning Tokyo architecture, scenes and objects.

Vet your metrics, avoid wrong investment decisions with these Expert Questions

Metrics are important to green building finance because they can help you prove the green value-add you’re getting from your sustainability or energy efficiency initiatives.  First of all, they’ll drive the project choices that your company makes, which will determine the future state of the green finance or investment program that you’re running. Over time, they’ll teach your company how and where to improve its green investing activities because they’ll point you to the areas to improve in order to reach your business objectives.

There’s a lot riding on your choice of metrics

However, achieving that success depends on choosing the right metrics in the first place. There’s lots of evidence that getting metrics wrong can result in huge problems… once you realize that there’s even a problem in the first place and that it stems from a faulty metric.

Enterprise Group CEO John Mariotti wrote about how the medical establishment continues to accept the “normal” human body temperature of 98.6 F, even it was proven to be 98.25 F many years ago.

There’s also the expensive (and ongoing) example of the losses suffered by governments and investors that relied on the AAA credit ratings on securitized mortgage pools, which touched off a global financial crisis, when the ratings were exposed as inaccurate.

Expert Questions for vetting metrics

We help clients to vet their metrics, so that they make the right decisions about their target environmental, social and economic impacts. I condensed them into shortlist of Expert Questions for Vetting Metrics**, that I taught my grad finance class yesterday. You can use it to locate and assess potential weaknesses in measurements, preventing wrong decisions and expensive problems.

1. Who created the metric or it’s criteria?
2. How do they define value?
3. What do they want to know?
4. What will they do with the data?
5. Does the measurement and any impacts comply with the Four C’s?
6. Are chosen discount rates and sensitivity scenarios well-justified?
7. How does it drive marginal improvement in environmental quality and well-being?
8. What’s the measurement baseline?
9. How is the metric’s range of motion defined?
10. Does the metrics reporting period match the firm’s normal financial reporting period?

There’s only enough time for now to discuss a simple principle that is behind #’s 1-4. It is: forms of social / environmental measurement serve the perspective and objectives of the measurement’s creator.

Most practitioners know that it’s important to use metrics that are comparable across many firms, to get a transparent view and the right context about a company’s or portfolio’s performance.  In green investing, there are various private data collection firms compiling this information, but they may focus their data reporting on a particular sub-sector of clients. The measurements used can be less effective for you if your firm does not fit the profile of this client sub-sector.

I’ll write more on the other vetting questions from time to time, but feel free to use this list to check or recheck your own metrics or the criteria that’s behind them. When you know you’re accurately measuring green investment performance, then you’ll enjoy the benefits of better decision making and impact.

**What are Expert Questions?

Troubleshooting multifamily energy efficiency finance

Yesterday I spoke on a panel put together by the California Public Utilities Commission (CPUC) at a  workshop investigating the barriers to and simplifiers needed for energy efficiency financing for the market rate multifamily sector.

Get mind map and video notes

Play the video to run through the highlights in ~7 minutes or download this interactive mind map to read the detailed notes at your own pace.

Synopsis - Every energy efficiency financing decision requires knowing the green building business case

Throughout the session, we drilled down into landlords and lenders problems with energy efficiency financing. It wasn’t hard to name quite a few.

The CPUC can address these issues once they understand their relative impacts on which parties. To find that out, they have to delve into the green building business case for the market rate apartment sector. That’s something that they’ve only recently focused on.

First of all, energy savings were discussed in isolation from other retrofit benefits — similar to what I observed at yesterday’s commercial building workshop, too much silo thinking.

Retrofitting apartments can translate into higher net operating income and cash flow in a variety of ways. In addition to energy savings, more durable systems last longer, need less maintenance and decrease the amount of funds going to capital expenditures over the lifetime of ownership. On top of that, effective gross income can be improved through tenant retention.

Product design received long overdue attention.  My co-panelists echoed gripes by yesterday’s commercial building panelists about the need for simplified transaction processes and lower costs.

Understanding the landlord’s needs and requirements as a customer (and not a “ratepayer”) will help the regulators to bring financial products to market that can help property owners become more proactive about initiating deeper retrofits.

The notes and video contain more details on the topics covered. It was clear that any future products would be greatly helped by understanding the total value-creation picture (yes, systems thinking again). The green building business case helps them to quantify that and make the connection between the goals of owners and lenders as well as their own.

Tell me what you think

What green or energy efficiency finance programs are you watching these days? How well are they working in your market?  Please share your comments.

Interactive Mind Map - Energy Efficiency Finance Barriers and Simplifiers for Commercial Buildings

Today I’m speaking at the California Public Utility Commission’s (CPUC) workshops on energy efficiency finance for the commercial, industrial and residential sectors.

This is the second of a two day event that the CPUC is using to convene stakeholders to understand their views on the “state of energy efficiency finance” and what needs to be done in order to move  it forward.

I’ll be on a panel this afternoon that focuses on energy efficiency financing for market rate multifamily properties.

I sat in on yesterday’s commercial building session and had a great time sharing perspectives on the barriers and simplifiers to commercial building energy efficiency finance.  There were excellent speakers and a spirited crowd of practitioners sharing lots of great ideas (more on those later).

Where’s The Tenant End User in the Energy Efficiency Finance System?

One observation is that, while the various barriers were talked about in great detail and the many issues that landlords have with this new kind of product was analyzed in detail, absolutely no one brought up the connection between tenants looking for green and energy efficient space and how tenant acquisition and retention motivates landlords. Revenue opportunities tend to have that effect on companies.

If the CPUC policy makers and commercial real estate industry want to make real progress on the greening of buildings, they will have to embrace a systems view of how real estate works as an entire industry all the way to the end user tenant and occupant. Treating real estate like a collection of silo’s only assures that there’ll be plenty more workshops about barriers and simplifiers for decades to come.

Gaining a deeper, updated understanding — and innovating — the relationship and roles of landlord and their tenant customers vis a vis green finance will generate massive traction in the fight to reduce building energy.

Get the download on the top energy efficiency finance barriers and simplifiers

For right now, here are my notes for download on the consensus view of the biggest actions needed to make energy efficiency financing work for commercial real estate investors, reduce building energy use and emissions. By the way, this is an interactive mind map — your browser needs a flash player to view it. Email me if it doesn’t work. I’ll send you a static pdf map with all the branches opened up so you can see the notes.

Does the mind map format work for you?

Please comment here and let me know. I’ve been sharing my teaching notes via mind maps with my Presidio graduate finance class this semester and they like it.

What do you think about energy efficiency finance?

Finally, I’d also appreciate hearing  what you think about the state of energy efficiency finance for commercial real estate and its barriers and possible simplifiers. Please pass this along and let others know here what people are saying.

How failed US climate legislation hurts commercial property investors

“Absent very unlikely changes in federal law, this task will fall to fifty state legislatures, governors, and utility commissions,”

Yikes.

If you know any nationally-active real estate investor who’s leery of climate legislation, tell them that now -  even with climate legislation dead for 2010 - is definitely not the time to relax. Then pass along this story from Monday’s New York Times, laying out how the lack of a unified national climate and energy policy is only expected to make the US’s already feudalistic energy policy patchwork even more complex for building owners. After they read it, give them a Tylenol for their headache.

In a nutshell, US energy policy has always been driven regionally by ideology, state self-interests and political winds of the moment. In former times, readily available, cheap fossil fuel meant that buildings and businesses felt no impact. In current times, fragmented policies can make already costly energy more expensive because it will push the job of coordinating for the highest energy efficiency directly onto the real estate industry.

The Times doesn’t mention any detriment to commercial real estate by name, but you can figure with buildings being responsible for 76% of US electricity use, that these forces can be particularly brutal on a nationally-active investor with assets “in the wrong place at the wrong time”.

Not only does the current retreat from climate legislation point to sharpened regionalist state energy policies, experts fully expect those states with traction on renewables and energy efficiency, to march ahead with various regional carbon cap-and-trade regimes.

So, in addition to managing building efficiency without adequate public support in some regions, investors will have stay abreast of regional cap-and-trade programs that other states do belong to.

Real estate investors are must be vigilant in monitoring regional energy policy developments

Today, with national climate legislation off the table for 2010, the risks associated with the currently fragmented patchwork of energy policies are becoming even more fragmented against a more volatile national and global energy market. Commercial real estate investors need to remain vigilant over the evolution of regional energy policy within the areas where they are active to avoid ‘risk creep’ within their portfolios.

They should not rely on arguments such as “energy is cheap during a recession”, “energy futures are currently flat” or think of energy costs in historic terms. The Times story lays out how US regions have already set on very different paths to manage their energy needs, and the current regulatory, ideological and economic winds can provoke radically different policy responses in the different regions - which can mean differing cash flow results for the investors’ efforts.

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